Usage Projections - FAQs
Overview:
COGS-Well can project how much of an item will be used when doing Ordering, Transfer Requests, Production, and/or Prep. The purpose of a Usage Projection is to add projected usage to a Suggested Quantity calculation.
For example, a Suggested Quantity calculation looks at the theoretical on-hand quantity for an item, and the par level for that item (if one exists), and then suggests a quantity to order, request, or produce).
A Usage Projection will calculate the amount of the item that will be used between the current date, and the next transaction date (like the next order date), and add it to the Suggested Quantity.
Usage Projections are based on the theoretical usage for an item (which is determined by menu item sales) over a 6-week historical period. An average theoretical usage for each item is calculated for each day of the week. This formula can be modified when configuring a Suggested Quantity Type.
For example, if salmon is being ordered today, if the next delivery date is 3 days from today, and if the historical theoretical usage is 20 pounds over these same 3 days of the week, then the suggested order quantity for salmon will be increased by 20 pounds.
The use of a Usage Projection is optional when calculating suggested orders, transfer requests, production, or prep.
Use With or Without Par Levels:
A Usage Projection can be used in combination with Par Level(s) or without a Par Level. For example, if salmon has a Par level of 20 pounds, and the Suggested Quantity calculation to Par is 10 pounds, then the 20 pounds of Projected Usage from the example above would be added to the Suggested Order (30 pounds total). If salmon does not have a Par Level (the assumption is that it is all used each day), then the Suggested Order or Transfer Request will be the amount needed to meet the Usage Projection (20 pounds).
Dependence on Recipe Items and Historical Sales:
A Usage Projection utilizes historical theoretical item usage (based on its portion in Recipe Items and the number of times the Recipe Item was sold) as the basis for the calculation. This translates to a requirement for accurate recipes for the items you wish to project usage for and a POS interface to capture the number of times those Recipe Items are sold.
If you want to use Usage Projections for Suggested Ordering, Transfer Requests, Production, or Prep, but you don't have time to set up detailed Recipe Items for all of your menu items, you could build Recipe Items specifically for the items you want to projections for.
For example, if you wanted to use projections for meat and fish items, you could set up Recipe Items with just the portion of meat or fish that is in the recipe.
Another option to consider is Inventory Items like wine lend themselves well to Suggested Ordering and Usage Projections because they are easy to set up as Recipe Items and you know a bottle sold should be a bottle used (yields are 100%).
The Formula for a Usage Projection:
The calculation for a Usage Projection is first projecting Recipe Item sales and then projecting ingredient usage.
Projected Recipe Item Sales: Recipe Items sales are averaged for the same days of the week that match the gap between the order date and the delivery date. You control how many prior weeks of history you want to include. If you request, the high and low sales quantities for each item and day of the week are excluded from the average to eliminate exceptions to normal business levels.
Projected Usage: Using the project sales above, a projected usage quantity for each ingredient is calculated by exploding the Recipe Items into their raw ingredients and multiplying the quantity by the projected sales averages for each day that is included. The total Projected Usage is the sum of the projected usage for all days between the order and the next delivery date.
Suggested Quantity Types:
Suggested Quantity Types provide a way to preconfigure the metrics that are used to calculate a suggested order, Transfer Request, Production, or Prep Item quantity. A Suggested Quantity Type can then be selected when printing a worksheet for any of these four transition types.
A Suggested Quantity Type can also be used when entering an Order, Transfer Request, or Production. The default values that are preconfigured in a Suggested Quantity Type can be overridden when running worksheets or entering transactions.
The setup for Suggested Quantity Types includes an option to utilize a Usage Projection and to configure default values for the projection. It also has an option to use theoretical quantities on hand, as well as Par Levels, in the Suggested Quantity calculations.
Suggested Quantity Types are configured separately for ordering, transfer requests, production, and prep and at least one type must be configured for each desired transaction type. You can click this link for a detailed article on setting up Suggested Quantity Types.